Step 4 · Forecasts
The next twelve months, and how wide the honest range is
Each model is fitted to the latest ten years and simulated forward thousands of times. The fan shows where the simulated price paths end up month by month. Compare the blue median (with a climate input) with the gold one (without): when they barely differ, the climate signal is not moving the forecast much, whatever the headlines say about El Niño.
Below the fan, the same pair of models is replayed over history, one month ahead at a time, so you can judge whether their intervals deserve trust.
Commodity
Climate input
Prices
Wheat (US hard red winter): the next twelve months
From September 2026 (last price US$347/mt). Median and 80% / 95% ranges of 4,000 simulated paths.
- Observed price
- With MEI.v2 (median)
- 80% / 95% range
- Baseline (median)
Show the forecast table
| Month | Baseline median | Baseline 80% | MEI.v2 median | MEI.v2 80% | Mean monthly change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2026 | 350 | 325–377 | 343 | 317–369 | −1.33% |
| Nov 2026 | 353 | 317–392 | 337 | 303–375 | −1.71% |
| Dec 2026 | 355 | 311–406 | 332 | 290–379 | −1.58% |
| Jan 2027 | 358 | 306–416 | 326 | 280–381 | −1.57% |
| Feb 2027 | 362 | 302–429 | 321 | 271–380 | −1.55% |
| Mar 2027 | 364 | 299–439 | 317 | 263–381 | −1.54% |
| Apr 2027 | 367 | 296–450 | 312 | 254–381 | −1.53% |
| May 2027 | 369 | 295–460 | 308 | 247–382 | −1.52% |
| Jun 2027 | 372 | 293–468 | 302 | 241–383 | −1.51% |
| Jul 2027 | 375 | 291–478 | 298 | 234–382 | −1.49% |
| Aug 2027 | 377 | 289–487 | 294 | 227–380 | −1.48% |
| Sep 2027 | 378 | 288–495 | 288 | 221–379 | −1.47% |
Prices in US$ per mt.
Climate input: MEI.v2 3 months earlier (lag chosen on the validation half; test skill −0.7%). Its fitted coefficient on the latest window is −0.794 percentage points of monthly return per index unit. 9 of the index values this forecast needs are not published yet (or lie in the future); they were filled with an AR(1) projection of the index, and that extra uncertainty is not in the bands.
How the same models did, month by month
Each point is a genuine one-step-ahead forecast made with only the data available at the time. Bands: the climate model's own 80% and 95% intervals.
- Actual monthly change
- With MEI.v2
- Baseline
- 80% / 95% interval
Show
Apr 2008 to Jun 2026: RMSE 6.62 with MEI.v2 against 6.58 for the baseline (percentage points). The 80% and 95% intervals contained 84% and 94% of outcomes; below the nominal rates means the intervals are too narrow, usually because of price spikes.